Premier League 2017-2018

Found in [R , soccer , EPL]

This is a page dedicated to weekly predictions for English Premier League. I am a fan of the Premier League and I support the Southampton Saints and am a long time Gooner though try as I might no sort of projection I do can make them better. A lot of the data for this comes from the awesome engsoccerdata package available on github. My predictions are under constantly construction, but they are based on Poisson distributions, and you can read a little bit about those here. Though this will appear on my blog feed it can be found in later weeks on the navigation bar via the button.

Results Summary

correct incorrect total
66
54
120


Position Team MP W D L F A Diff P
1 Manchester City 12 11 1 0 40 7 33 34 W W W W W
2 Manchester United 12 8 2 2 27 6 21 26 D L W L W
3 Chelsea 12 8 1 3 23 10 13 25 L W W W W
4 Tottenham Hotspur 12 7 2 3 20 9 11 23 W W L W L
5 Liverpool 12 6 4 2 24 17 7 22 D L W W W
6 Arsenal 12 7 1 4 22 16 6 22 L W W L W
7 Burnley 12 6 4 2 12 9 3 22 D L W W W
8 Watford 12 5 3 4 19 21 -2 18 W L L L W
9 Brighton & Hove Albion 12 4 4 4 13 13 0 16 D W D W D
10 Huddersfield Town 12 4 3 5 8 17 -9 15 L W L W L
11 Newcastle United 12 4 2 6 11 14 -3 14 D W L L L
12 Leicester City 12 3 4 5 16 18 -2 13 D W W D L
13 AFC Bournemouth 12 4 1 7 11 14 -3 13 L W L W W
14 Southampton 12 3 4 5 9 14 -5 13 D W D L L
15 Stoke City 12 3 4 5 15 24 -9 13 L L W D D
16 Everton 12 3 3 6 12 24 -12 12 D L L W D
17 West Bromwich Albion 12 2 4 6 9 18 -9 10 D L L L L
18 West Ham United 12 2 3 7 11 25 -14 9 D L D L L
19 Swansea City 12 2 2 8 7 15 -8 8 W L L L L
20 Crystal Palace 12 1 2 9 6 24 -18 5 W L D L D

Week 13

Last week was one of the most exciting week of games this season. Each game had you on the edge of your seat and anxiously sipping your Guinness. I narrowly lost my fantasy matchup but it was a good week for the prediction results. For a gooner the Arsenal result seemed to look like a return to some confidence in the Arsenal squad. I think that the addition of more weight on the last five game performances may be the only change I make going into Week 13.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals
Burnley Arsenal 1 3
Crystal Palace Stoke City 2 1
Huddersfield Town Manchester City 1 3
Liverpool Chelsea 2 2
Manchester United Brighton & Hove Albion 3 1
Newcastle United Watford 1 0
Southampton Everton 2 1
Swansea City AFC Bournemouth 2 2
Tottenham Hotspur West Bromwich Albion 3 1
West Ham United Leicester City 2 1

Week 12

Week 11 was a prime tribute to the fragility of team positions mid and low in the table. With teams like Bournemouth, Brighton and Burnley all picking up low percentage chance wins. Though I did get the Brighton result right I believe I still have quite a bit of tweaking to do with market values but I left the overall calculations unchanged for this week.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Arsenal Tottenham Hotspur 1 1 2-0
AFC Bournemouth Huddersfield Town 1 0 4-0
Brighton & Hove Albion Stoke City 3 1 2-2
Burnley Swansea City 2 1 2-0
Crystal Palace Everton 1 2 2-2
Leicester City Manchester City 1 3 0-2
Liverpool Southampton 3 1 3-0
Manchester United Newcastle United 2 0 4-1
Watford West Ham United 2 1 2-0
West Bromwich Albion Chelsea 1 2 0-4

Week 11

Last week shook out okay, though my only disappointment had to be the Watford Stoke result. This week I only use the last five games plus market value with offense weighted differently to see how that works out.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Chelsea Manchester United 2 1 1-0
Everton Watford 1 0 3-2
Huddersfield Town West Bromwich Albion 1 1 1-0
Manchester City Arsenal 2 1 3-1
Newcastle United AFC Bournemouth 3 1 0-1
Southampton Burnley 1 0 0-1
Stoke City Leicester City 2 1 2-2
Swansea City Brighton & Hove Albion 1 0 0-1
Tottenham Hotspur Crystal Palace 3 1 1-0
West Ham United Liverpool 1 2 1-4

Week 10

The last changes I made to the market cap weight seem to have made a difference. I think I may try and establish a model based on last five game performance for Week 12-14 to see if that does any better. Maybe it could predict things like Manchester United losing to Huddersfield (17/2 odds Huddersfield winning).

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Arsenal Swansea City 3 1 2-1
AFC Bournemouth Chelsea 1 3 0-1
Brighton & Hove Albion Southampton 2 1 1-1
Burnley Newcastle United 1 1 1-0
Crystal Palace West Ham United 2 2 2-2
Leicester City Everton 2 1 2-0
Liverpool Huddersfield Town 3 1 3-0
Manchester United Tottenham Hotspur 0 1 1-0
Watford Stoke City 2 1 0-1
West Bromwich Albion Manchester City 1 3 2-3

Week 9

Week 8 saw the introduction of the ‘market cap’ value to the predictions. This made the bigger teams (Chelsea, Arsenal, etc.) with the larger purses have wider margins, and fall harder. My predictions included some lofty goal scoring and high rated offenses which then fell to the supposedly lower rated teams. Chelsea falling to Crystal Palace, Arsenal falling to Watford, it was all a mess. I made some changes going into this week to lessen the impact of the market values and add a heavire weight to the results from this year.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Chelsea Watford 2 1 4-2
Everton Arsenal 1 2 2-5
Huddersfield Town Manchester United 0 2 2-1
Manchester City Burnley 3 0 3-0
Newcastle United Crystal Palace 2 1 1-0
Southampton West Bromwich Albion 1 0 1-0
Stoke City AFC Bournemouth 2 1 1-2
Swansea City Leicester City 2 1 1-2
Tottenham Hotspur Liverpool 2 1 4-1
West Ham United Brighton & Hove Albion 1 0 0-3

Week 8

I am getting behind on these but I was travelling again last weekend. This week is the debut of the first market cap feature addition. It seems to be a fairly cut and dry week with fixtures so may have to wait a couple weeks to see if accuracy changes.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Brighton & Hove Albion Everton 2 1 1-1
Burnley West Ham United 2 2 1-1
Crystal Palace Chelsea 1 3 2-1
Leicester City West Bromwich Albion 2 1 1-1
Liverpool Manchester United 1 2 0-0
Manchester City Stoke City 3 1 7-2
Southampton Newcastle United 1 2 2-2
Swansea City Huddersfield Town 2 1 2-0
Tottenham Hotspur AFC Bournemouth 3 1 1-0
Watford Arsenal 2 3 2-1

Week 7

Sorry for the hiatus… back to the results! It was very interesting to see a wild week like Week 5, which was tough to forecast for many on the web, where I went 4-6 on results. Follow that up with Week 6, where it was positive 8-2. The EPL is a fickle thing. This Week 7 is the last week slated to just be adjusting values within the calculations of performance variables. After this week I will only be making changes and additions of new data such as team market cap, foreign league performance etc.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Huddersfield Town Tottenham Hotspur 0 2 0-4
AFC Bournemouth Leicester City 1 1 0-0
Manchester United Crystal Palace 3 0 4-0
Stoke City Southampton 2 1 2-1
West Bromwich Albion Watford 0 2 2-2
West Ham United Swansea City 2 1 1-0
Chelsea Manchester City 1 2 0-1
Arsenal Brighton & Hove Albion 2 1 2-0
Everton Burnley 2 1 0-1
Newcastle United Liverpool 1 2 1-1

Week 6

Hiatus week #2 (left results unchanged)

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
West Ham United Tottenham Hotspur 1 3 2-3
Burnley Huddersfield Town 2 1 0-0
Everton AFC Bournemouth 3 1 2-1
Manchester City Crystal Palace 3 1 5-0
Southampton Manchester United 1 2 0-1
Stoke City Chelsea 1 2 0-4
Swansea City Watford 2 1 1-2
Leicester City Liverpool 2 3 2-3
Brighton & Hove Albion Newcastle United 1 1 1-0
Arsenal West Bromwich Albion 3 1 2-0

Week 5

Hiatus week #1 (left results unchanged)

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
AFC Bournemouth Brighton & Hove Albion 2 2 2-1
Crystal Palace Southampton 1 2 0-1
Huddersfield Town Leicester City 2 1 1-1
Liverpool Burnley 3 1 1-1
Newcastle United Stoke City 3 1 2-1
Watford Manchester City 1 3 0-6
West Bromwich Albion West Ham United 2 2 0-0
Tottenham Hotspur Swansea City 3 1 0-0
Chelsea Arsenal 3 1 0-0
Manchester United Everton 2 1 4-0

Week 4

It was a rough Week 3 for predictions. As I think about what has worked so far this season it seems that lessening the head to head history factor and allowing the current season performance to weigh heavier in the model.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Manchester City Liverpool 2 2 5-0
Arsenal AFC Bournemouth 3 1 3-0
Brighton & Hove Albion West Bromwich Albion 2 1 3-1
Everton Tottenham Hotspur 2 2 0-3
Leicester City Chelsea 1 3 1-2
Southampton Watford 1 1 0-2
Stoke City Manchester United 1 2 2-2
Burnley Crystal Palace 2 1 1-0
Swansea City Newcastle United 1 2 0-1
West Ham United Huddersfield Town 0 1 2-0

Week 3

Minor improvements to the way goals are calculated and compared mde the goal predictions closer, this week will hopefully improve on that. Another big team gives us an upset for the second week in a row with Arsenal losing 0-1 to Stoke. This week the changes are just incorporating last week’s results, leaving the goal projections raw, and next week I plan on adding a revised head-to-head factor.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
AFC Bournemouth Manchester City 2 2 1-2
Chelsea Everton 3 1 2-0
Crystal Palace Swansea City 2 1 0-2
Huddersfield Town Southampton 0 1 0-0
Newcastle United West Ham United 1 2 3-0
Tottenham Hotspur Burnley 3 1 1-1
Watford Brighton & Hove Albion 1 0 0-0
Manchester United Leicester City 2 1 2-0
West Bromwich Albion Stoke City 1 1 1-1
Liverpool Arsenal 2 1 4-0

Week 2

What an exciting Week 1. There were a couple of upsets, with Chelsea falling to Burnley 2-3, and Liverpool drawing with Watford. The newly promoted teams madea good showing with Crystal Palace falling to Huddersfield 0-3. My adjustments are not extensive this week, just including the first week’s results, and lessening the promoted team handicap.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Swansea City Manchester United 0 2 0-4
AFC Bournemouth Watford 1 2 0-2
Burnley West Bromwich Albion 2 1 0-1
Leicester City Brighton & Hove Albion 2 0 2-0
Liverpool Crystal Palace 3 2 1-0
West Ham United Southampton 1 1 2-3
Stoke City Arsenal 1 2 1-0
Huddersfield Town Newcastle United 1 0 1-0
Tottenham Hotspur Chelsea 2 1 1-2
Manchester City Everton 2 1 1-1

Week 1

In this first week I left the goal predictions as-is with no adjustments for draws or by any sort of rank strength. I want this first week to start off as simple as possible and go from there.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Arsenal Leicester City 3 1 4-3
Watford Liverpool 1 2 3-3
Chelsea Burnley 3 1 2-3
Crystal Palace Huddersfield Town 2 0 0-3
Everton Stoke City 3 1 1-0
Southampton Swansea City 1 1 0-0
West Bromwich Albion AFC Bournemouth 2 2 1-0
Brighton & Hove Albion Manchester City 0 2 0-2
Newcastle United Tottenham Hotspur 0 1 0-2
Manchester United West Ham United 2 2 4-0