Premier League 2017-2018

Found in [R , soccer , EPL]

This is a page dedicated to weekly predictions for English Premier League. I am a fan of the Premier League and I support the Southampton Saints though try as I might no sort of projection I do can make them better. A lot of the data for this comes from the awesome engsoccerdata package available on github. My predictions are under constantly construction, but they are based on Poisson distributions, and you can read a little bit about those here. Though this will appear on my blog feed it can be found in later weeks on the navigation bar via the button.


Week 4

It was a rough Week 3 for predictions. As I think about what has worked so far this season it seems that lessening the head to head history factor and allowing the current season performance to weigh heavier in the model.

Date Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals
Sep 9, 2017 Manchester City Liverpool 2 2
Sep 9, 2017 Arsenal AFC Bournemouth 3 1
Sep 9, 2017 Brighton & Hove Albion West Bromwich Albion 2 1
Sep 9, 2017 Everton Tottenham Hotspur 2 2
Sep 9, 2017 Leicester City Chelsea 1 3
Sep 9, 2017 Southampton Watford 1 1
Sep 9, 2017 Stoke City Manchester United 1 2
Sep 10, 2017 Burnley Crystal Palace 2 1
Sep 10, 2017 Swansea City Newcastle United 1 3
Sep 11, 2017 West Ham United Huddersfield Town 0 1

Week 3

Minor improvements to the way goals are calculated and compared mde the goal predictions closer, this week will hopefully improve on that. Another big team gives us an upset for the second week in a row with Arsenal losing 0-1 to Stoke. This week the changes are just incorporating last week’s results, leaving the goal projections raw, and next week I plan on adding a revised head-to-head factor.

Date Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Aug 26, 2017 AFC Bournemouth Manchester City 2 2 1-2
Aug 26, 2017 Chelsea Everton 3 1 2-0
Aug 26, 2017 Crystal Palace Swansea City 2 2 0-2
Aug 26, 2017 Huddersfield Town Southampton 0 2 0-0
Aug 26, 2017 Newcastle United West Ham United 1 2 3-0
Aug 26, 2017 Tottenham Hotspur Burnley 3 1 1-1
Aug 26, 2017 Watford Brighton & Hove Albion 2 0 0-0
Aug 26, 2017 Manchester United Leicester City 2 1 2-0
Aug 27, 2017 West Bromwich Albion Stoke City 1 1 1-1
Aug 27, 2017 Liverpool Arsenal 2 1 4-0

Week 2

What an exciting Week 1. There were a couple of upsets, with Chelsea falling to Burnley 2-3, and Liverpool drawing with Watford. The newly promoted teams madea good showing with Crystal Palace falling to Huddersfield 0-3. My adjustments are not extensive this week, just including the first week’s results, and lessening the promoted team handicap.

Date Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Aug 19, 2017 Swansea City Manchester United 0 2 0-4
Aug 19, 2017 AFC Bournemouth Watford 1 2 0-2
Aug 19, 2017 Burnley West Bromwich Albion 2 1 0-1
Aug 19, 2017 Leicester City Brighton & Hove Albion 2 0 2-0
Aug 19, 2017 Liverpool Crystal Palace 3 2 1-0
Aug 19, 2017 West Ham United Southampton 1 2 2-3
Aug 19, 2017 Stoke City Arsenal 2 3 1-0
Aug 20, 2017 Huddersfield Town Newcastle United 1 0 1-0
Aug 20, 2017 Tottenham Hotspur Chelsea 2 1 1-2
Aug 21, 2017 Manchester City Everton 2 1 1-1

Week 1

In this first week I left the goal predictions as-is with no adjustments for draws or by any sort of rank strength. I want this first week to start off as simple as possible and go from there.

Date Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Aug 11, 2017 Arsenal Leicester City 3 2 4-3
Aug 12, 2017 Watford Liverpool 1 2 3-3
Aug 12, 2017 Chelsea Burnley 3 1 2-3
Aug 12, 2017 Crystal Palace Huddersfield Town 2 0 0-3
Aug 12, 2017 Everton Stoke City 3 1 1-0
Aug 12, 2017 Southampton Swansea City 2 2 0-0
Aug 12, 2017 West Bromwich Albion AFC Bournemouth 2 2 1-0
Aug 12, 2017 Brighton & Hove Albion Manchester City 1 2 0-2
Aug 13, 2017 Newcastle United Tottenham Hotspur 0 1 0-2
Aug 13, 2017 Manchester United West Ham United 2 2 4-0