engsoccerdatapackage available on github. My predictions are under constantly construction, but they are based on Poisson distributions, and you can read a little bit about those here. Though this will appear on my blog feed it can be found in later weeks on the navigation bar via the button.
|Brighton & Hove Albion||32||8||11||13||29||43||-14||35||W||W||L||L||D|
|West Ham United||32||8||10||14||40||58||-18||34||L||L||L||W||D|
|West Bromwich Albion||33||3||12||18||26||52||-26||21||L||L||L||L||D|
Last week was my model’s worst week of results this Premier League with only three fixtures predicted correctly. As we get towards the end of the season with teams possibly ‘parking the bus’ could be something that throws the model off. This could also offer an interesting opportunity to try and measure it.
|Home||Home Goals||Away Goals||Visitor|
|Crystal Palace||2||1||Brighton & Hove Albion|
|Tottenham Hotspur||1||2||Manchester City|
|Manchester United||2||1||West Bromwich Albion|
|West Ham United||2||1||Stoke City|
|Brighton & Hove Albion||0||2||Tottenham Hotspur|
|AFC Bournemouth||1||2||Manchester United|
The story writes itself. Manchester City have conquered the league and they have arranged a chance to win the league at home against Jose’s United side. What a fitting end.
After last week’s short fixtures list it is nice to see a full weekend of games. I think the games to watch are the Southampton vs. West Ham match with the state of the West Ham club and the new manager at Southampton. Also the B.H.A. vs. Leicester game will be an interesting watch as well as Tottenham taking the trip to Stamford Bridge.
This short week has what look to be some fairly boring straightforward games (though this season has been anything but).
Watching Manchester United claw back from near defeat to get the three points last week was something to behold. United seemed confused that a game of football appeared to be happening regardless of their participation decided that if it was happening they wanted the three points. Any side in any other year with that ability would win the league, this year is something special. City continue their dominance with a clinical win over Chelsea in which at some point they just gave up.
Much like City have run away with this season, so has this page run away from me. I am proud to say that I have made and counted predictions for every game week but that is about it. The page is a little less sharp than I would want it. Here’s a promise (in writing) to do a little better, and also Week 29 predictions.
Week 27 played out about as I expected but to a different degree altogether. Huddersfield clattered Bournemouth 4-1 and the North London Derby ended with the better team on the day winning. I imagine that the Liverpool vs. West Ham, United vs. Chelsea and Palace vs. Tottenham are going to be exciting games to watch.
I finally have caught up, streamlined my scoring, and updated this page. We have seen quite a few upsets. Swansea seem to be giant killers now, and now that the transfer window has closed there are new faces to add to the equation. Only big surprise here is that I have Huddersfield beating a pretty solid AFC Bouremouth side.
I am so far behind.
After a sun and fun filled week I am back at it. Though work has officially started back up I still only have vacation on the brain luckily I have things like soccer predictions to distract myself with. Since I’ve last been here Manchester City’s record setting run finally came to an end with a thrashing from Liverpool 0-4. Then in a song as old as time Liverpool lose to bottom-of-the-table Swansea. This week is pretty uneventful but I think the Everton-Leicester and the Newcastle-Burnley contests will be games to watch… Oh and Tottenham vs. Man. United.
There are quite a lot of changes this week. I realized a couple weeks ago how unweidly the page has become with results, not to mention how hard to navigate and long the compiling takes, so I decided to do something about it. I removed the calculations from previous weeks as well as the results charts, call it a learning experience. I have kept the changes and the notes which you can scroll down to view. These will help me after the season look at when and why changes were made. I will most likely add some form of the previous results table back in the next couple week when I have time.
Where do I start? Manchester City continues their steamroll through all challengers and KDB has started taking games into his own hands (feet). Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace move up to 14th with West Ham nipping at their heels with convincing performance away at Stoke. For the coming couples weeks the weighted distributions will stay the same as it has been fairly accurate.
The games midweek are always a surprise. Two big draws shuffle up the Premier League table going into this weekend with Arsenal drawing West Ham United away and Liverpool drawing with West Brom at home at Anfield. The weekend could likely see Burnley back up in fourth if the Spurs lose to Man City, Arsenal fail to pick up points again Newcastle and Liverpool, who struggled at home, fail to score away at Bournemouth. Stock up on Guinness this weekend should be good.
There is no time.
I added more weight to the last five game performance to see how that plays out in the next two weeks. Week 15 showed us that even when a team has 75% possesion, 16 shots on, and 33 shots total they can still come out two goals behind (I am looking at you Arsenal). There is also the little matter of what to do about Tottenham.
With Week 14’s mid-week games packed in between two big weekends of fixtures it will be interesting to see how certain managers deal with substitutions, possibly opting to keep certain big players rested for later. This week brought a lot of changes, Everton seemed to find their footing against a decaying West Ham side, could this be Big Sam’s doing? Leicester show they are a side to be reckoned with after shutting down a flat Tottenham. There are no changes to the algorithm this week, mostly because I didn’t have time.
Week 13 was an exciting foray into all the best bits of the Premier League. Arsenal getting a win they may have not deserved. Chelsea swiping a point from Liverpool (like a beloved children’s show fox) with what many are calling a *crot from Willian and Tottenham continue to falter as they fail to put away West Brom at home. This week I made mostly aesthetic changes moving the goals and results to the middle of the table which will be how they appear from now on. My prediction model remains unchanged this week.
*a wayward cross that somehow ends up on target, sometimes in the back of the net
Last week was one of the most exciting week of games this season. Each game had you on the edge of your seat and anxiously sipping your Guinness. I narrowly lost my fantasy matchup but it was a good week for the prediction results. For a gooner the Arsenal result seemed to look like a return to some confidence in the Arsenal squad. I think that the addition of more weight on the last five game performances may be the only change I make going into Week 13.
Week 11 was a prime tribute to the fragility of team positions mid and low in the table. With teams like Bournemouth, Brighton and Burnley all picking up low percentage chance wins. Though I did get the Brighton result right I believe I still have quite a bit of tweaking to do with market values but I left the overall calculations unchanged for this week.
Last week shook out okay, though my only disappointment had to be the Watford Stoke result. This week I only use the last five games plus market value with offense weighted differently to see how that works out.
The last changes I made to the market cap weight seem to have made a difference. I think I may try and establish a model based on last five game performance for Week 12-14 to see if that does any better. Maybe it could predict things like Manchester United losing to Huddersfield (17/2 odds Huddersfield winning).
Week 8 saw the introduction of the ‘market cap’ value to the predictions. This made the bigger teams (Chelsea, Arsenal, etc.) with the larger purses have wider margins, and fall harder. My predictions included some lofty goal scoring and high rated offenses which then fell to the supposedly lower rated teams. Chelsea falling to Crystal Palace, Arsenal falling to Watford, it was all a mess. I made some changes going into this week to lessen the impact of the market values and add a heavire weight to the results from this year.
I am getting behind on these but I was travelling again last weekend. This week is the debut of the first market cap feature addition. It seems to be a fairly cut and dry week with fixtures so may have to wait a couple weeks to see if accuracy changes.
Sorry for the hiatus… back to the results! It was very interesting to see a wild week like Week 5, which was tough to forecast for many on the web, where I went 4-6 on results. Follow that up with Week 6, where it was positive 8-2. The EPL is a fickle thing. This Week 7 is the last week slated to just be adjusting values within the calculations of performance variables. After this week I will only be making changes and additions of new data such as team market cap, foreign league performance etc.
Hiatus week #2 (left results unchanged)
Hiatus week #1 (left results unchanged)
It was a rough Week 3 for predictions. As I think about what has worked so far this season it seems that lessening the head to head history factor and allowing the current season performance to weigh heavier in the model.
Minor improvements to the way goals are calculated and compared mde the goal predictions closer, this week will hopefully improve on that. Another big team gives us an upset for the second week in a row with Arsenal losing 0-1 to Stoke. This week the changes are just incorporating last week’s results, leaving the goal projections raw, and next week I plan on adding a revised head-to-head factor.
What an exciting Week 1. There were a couple of upsets, with Chelsea falling to Burnley 2-3, and Liverpool drawing with Watford. The newly promoted teams madea good showing with Crystal Palace falling to Huddersfield 0-3. My adjustments are not extensive this week, just including the first week’s results, and lessening the promoted team handicap.
In this first week I left the goal predictions as-is with no adjustments for draws or by any sort of rank strength. I want this first week to start off as simple as possible and go from there.