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Premier League 2017-2018

Found in [R , soccer , EPL] by @awhstin on

This is a page dedicated to weekly predictions for English Premier League. I am a fan of the Premier League and I support the Southampton Saints and am a long time Gooner though try as I might no sort of projection I do can make them better. A lot of the data for this comes from the awesome engsoccerdata package available on github. My predictions are under constantly construction, but they are based on Poisson distributions, and you can read a little bit about those here. Though this will appear on my blog feed it can be found in later weeks on the navigation bar via the button.

Results Summary

right wrong total
58% 42% 352

Position   Team MP W D L F A Diff P
1 Manchester City 35 30 3 2 102 26 76 93 W L W W W
2 Manchester United 35 24 5 6 67 27 40 77 W W L W W
3 Liverpool 36 20 12 4 80 37 43 72 W D W D D
4 Tottenham Hotspur 35 21 8 6 68 31 37 71 W W L D W
5 Chelsea 35 20 6 9 60 34 26 66 L D W W W
6 Arsenal 35 17 6 12 67 48 19 57 W W L W L
7 Burnley 36 14 12 10 35 32 3 54 W W L D D
8 Everton 36 13 9 14 42 54 -12 48 L D D W W
9 Leicester City 35 11 11 13 49 52 -3 44 W L L D L
10 Newcastle United 35 11 8 16 35 44 -9 41 W W W L L
11 Crystal Palace 36 9 11 16 41 54 -13 38 L D W D W
12 AFC Bournemouth 36 9 11 16 42 60 -18 38 D D L L L
13 Watford 36 10 8 18 42 62 -20 38 D L L D L
14 Brighton & Hove Albion 35 8 13 14 32 47 -15 37 L D L D D
15 West Ham United 35 8 11 16 43 67 -24 35 W D D L L
16 Huddersfield Town 35 9 8 18 27 56 -29 35 L L D W L
17 Swansea City 35 8 9 18 27 52 -25 33 L D D L L
18 Southampton 35 6 14 15 35 54 -19 32 L L L D W
19 Stoke City 36 6 12 18 32 65 -33 30 L L D D D
20 West Bromwich Albion 36 5 13 18 30 54 -24 28 L D W D W

Week 37

This is the catch up week for missed games. Time to boost those fantasy points.

Home Home Goals Away Goals Visitor
Brighton & Hove Albion 1 2 Manchester United
Stoke City 1 2 Crystal Palace
AFC Bournemouth 3 2 Swansea City
Leicester City 2 2 West Ham United
Watford 1 0 Newcastle United
West Bromwich Albion 1 3 Tottenham Hotspur
Everton 3 1 Southampton
Manchester City 2 1 Huddersfield Town
Arsenal 3 1 Burnley
Chelsea 1 2 Liverpool
Leicester City 2 3 Arsenal
Chelsea 3 1 Huddersfield Town
Manchester City 2 1 Brighton & Hove Albion
Tottenham Hotspur 1 0 Newcastle United
West Ham United 1 2 Manchester United

Week 36

Manchester City won, Arsene resigned, Mo Salah has scored all the goals. Why are we still here? For the love of the game.

Week 35

Look at me, behind again.

Week 34

Last week was my model’s worst week of results this Premier League with only three fixtures predicted correctly. As we get towards the end of the season with teams possibly ‘parking the bus’ could be something that throws the model off. This could also offer an interesting opportunity to try and measure it.

Week 33

The story writes itself. Manchester City have conquered the league and they have arranged a chance to win the league at home against Jose’s United side. What a fitting end.

Week 32

After last week’s short fixtures list it is nice to see a full weekend of games. I think the games to watch are the Southampton vs. West Ham match with the state of the West Ham club and the new manager at Southampton. Also the B.H.A. vs. Leicester game will be an interesting watch as well as Tottenham taking the trip to Stamford Bridge.

Week 31

This short week has what look to be some fairly boring straightforward games (though this season has been anything but).

Week 30

Watching Manchester United claw back from near defeat to get the three points last week was something to behold. United seemed confused that a game of football appeared to be happening regardless of their participation decided that if it was happening they wanted the three points. Any side in any other year with that ability would win the league, this year is something special. City continue their dominance with a clinical win over Chelsea in which at some point they just gave up.

Week 29

Much like City have run away with this season, so has this page run away from me. I am proud to say that I have made and counted predictions for every game week but that is about it. The page is a little less sharp than I would want it. Here’s a promise (in writing) to do a little better, and also Week 29 predictions.

Week 28

Week 27 played out about as I expected but to a different degree altogether. Huddersfield clattered Bournemouth 4-1 and the North London Derby ended with the better team on the day winning. I imagine that the Liverpool vs. West Ham, United vs. Chelsea and Palace vs. Tottenham are going to be exciting games to watch.

Week 27

I finally have caught up, streamlined my scoring, and updated this page. We have seen quite a few upsets. Swansea seem to be giant killers now, and now that the transfer window has closed there are new faces to add to the equation. Only big surprise here is that I have Huddersfield beating a pretty solid AFC Bouremouth side.

Week 26

I am so far behind.

Week 25

After a sun and fun filled week I am back at it. Though work has officially started back up I still only have vacation on the brain luckily I have things like soccer predictions to distract myself with. Since I’ve last been here Manchester City’s record setting run finally came to an end with a thrashing from Liverpool 0-4. Then in a song as old as time Liverpool lose to bottom-of-the-table Swansea. This week is pretty uneventful but I think the Everton-Leicester and the Newcastle-Burnley contests will be games to watch… Oh and Tottenham vs. Man. United.

Week 24

On vacation.

Week 23

There are quite a lot of changes this week. I realized a couple weeks ago how unweidly the page has become with results, not to mention how hard to navigate and long the compiling takes, so I decided to do something about it. I removed the calculations from previous weeks as well as the results charts, call it a learning experience. I have kept the changes and the notes which you can scroll down to view. These will help me after the season look at when and why changes were made. I will most likely add some form of the previous results table back in the next couple week when I have time.

Week 22

No time

Week 21

No time

Week 20

No time

Week 19

Where do I start? Manchester City continues their steamroll through all challengers and KDB has started taking games into his own hands (feet). Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace move up to 14th with West Ham nipping at their heels with convincing performance away at Stoke. For the coming couples weeks the weighted distributions will stay the same as it has been fairly accurate.

Week 18

The games midweek are always a surprise. Two big draws shuffle up the Premier League table going into this weekend with Arsenal drawing West Ham United away and Liverpool drawing with West Brom at home at Anfield. The weekend could likely see Burnley back up in fourth if the Spurs lose to Man City, Arsenal fail to pick up points again Newcastle and Liverpool, who struggled at home, fail to score away at Bournemouth. Stock up on Guinness this weekend should be good.

Week 17

There is no time.

Week 16

I added more weight to the last five game performance to see how that plays out in the next two weeks. Week 15 showed us that even when a team has 75% possesion, 16 shots on, and 33 shots total they can still come out two goals behind (I am looking at you Arsenal). There is also the little matter of what to do about Tottenham.

Week 15

With Week 14’s mid-week games packed in between two big weekends of fixtures it will be interesting to see how certain managers deal with substitutions, possibly opting to keep certain big players rested for later. This week brought a lot of changes, Everton seemed to find their footing against a decaying West Ham side, could this be Big Sam’s doing? Leicester show they are a side to be reckoned with after shutting down a flat Tottenham. There are no changes to the algorithm this week, mostly because I didn’t have time.

Week 14

Week 13 was an exciting foray into all the best bits of the Premier League. Arsenal getting a win they may have not deserved. Chelsea swiping a point from Liverpool (like a beloved children’s show fox) with what many are calling a *crot from Willian and Tottenham continue to falter as they fail to put away West Brom at home. This week I made mostly aesthetic changes moving the goals and results to the middle of the table which will be how they appear from now on. My prediction model remains unchanged this week.

*a wayward cross that somehow ends up on target, sometimes in the back of the net

Week 13

Last week was one of the most exciting week of games this season. Each game had you on the edge of your seat and anxiously sipping your Guinness. I narrowly lost my fantasy matchup but it was a good week for the prediction results. For a gooner the Arsenal result seemed to look like a return to some confidence in the Arsenal squad. I think that the addition of more weight on the last five game performances may be the only change I make going into Week 13.

Week 12

Week 11 was a prime tribute to the fragility of team positions mid and low in the table. With teams like Bournemouth, Brighton and Burnley all picking up low percentage chance wins. Though I did get the Brighton result right I believe I still have quite a bit of tweaking to do with market values but I left the overall calculations unchanged for this week.

Week 11

Last week shook out okay, though my only disappointment had to be the Watford Stoke result. This week I only use the last five games plus market value with offense weighted differently to see how that works out.

Week 10

The last changes I made to the market cap weight seem to have made a difference. I think I may try and establish a model based on last five game performance for Week 12-14 to see if that does any better. Maybe it could predict things like Manchester United losing to Huddersfield (17/2 odds Huddersfield winning).

Week 9

Week 8 saw the introduction of the ‘market cap’ value to the predictions. This made the bigger teams (Chelsea, Arsenal, etc.) with the larger purses have wider margins, and fall harder. My predictions included some lofty goal scoring and high rated offenses which then fell to the supposedly lower rated teams. Chelsea falling to Crystal Palace, Arsenal falling to Watford, it was all a mess. I made some changes going into this week to lessen the impact of the market values and add a heavire weight to the results from this year.

Week 8

I am getting behind on these but I was travelling again last weekend. This week is the debut of the first market cap feature addition. It seems to be a fairly cut and dry week with fixtures so may have to wait a couple weeks to see if accuracy changes.

Week 7

Sorry for the hiatus… back to the results! It was very interesting to see a wild week like Week 5, which was tough to forecast for many on the web, where I went 4-6 on results. Follow that up with Week 6, where it was positive 8-2. The EPL is a fickle thing. This Week 7 is the last week slated to just be adjusting values within the calculations of performance variables. After this week I will only be making changes and additions of new data such as team market cap, foreign league performance etc.

Week 6

Hiatus week #2 (left results unchanged)

Week 5

Hiatus week #1 (left results unchanged)

Week 4

It was a rough Week 3 for predictions. As I think about what has worked so far this season it seems that lessening the head to head history factor and allowing the current season performance to weigh heavier in the model.

Week 3

Minor improvements to the way goals are calculated and compared mde the goal predictions closer, this week will hopefully improve on that. Another big team gives us an upset for the second week in a row with Arsenal losing 0-1 to Stoke. This week the changes are just incorporating last week’s results, leaving the goal projections raw, and next week I plan on adding a revised head-to-head factor.

Week 2

What an exciting Week 1. There were a couple of upsets, with Chelsea falling to Burnley 2-3, and Liverpool drawing with Watford. The newly promoted teams madea good showing with Crystal Palace falling to Huddersfield 0-3. My adjustments are not extensive this week, just including the first week’s results, and lessening the promoted team handicap.

Week 1

In this first week I left the goal predictions as-is with no adjustments for draws or by any sort of rank strength. I want this first week to start off as simple as possible and go from there.