Premier League 2017-2018

Found in [R , soccer , EPL] by @awhstin on

This is a page dedicated to weekly predictions for English Premier League. I am a fan of the Premier League and I support the Southampton Saints and am a long time Gooner though try as I might no sort of projection I do can make them better. A lot of the data for this comes from the awesome engsoccerdata package available on github. My predictions are under constantly construction, but they are based on Poisson distributions, and you can read a little bit about those here. Though this will appear on my blog feed it can be found in later weeks on the navigation bar via the button.

Results Summary

right wrong total
99 71 170


Position   Team MP W D L F A Diff P
1 Manchester City 17 16 1 0 52 11 41 49 W W W W W
2 Manchester United 17 12 2 3 37 11 26 38 W W W L W
3 Chelsea 17 11 2 4 31 14 17 35 D W W L W
4 Tottenham Hotspur 17 9 4 4 30 14 16 31 D L D W W
5 Liverpool 17 8 7 2 34 20 14 31 D W W D D
6 Burnley 17 9 4 4 16 12 4 31 L W L W W
7 Arsenal 17 9 3 5 30 20 10 30 W W L D D
8 Leicester City 17 7 5 5 27 23 4 26 D W W W W
9 Watford 17 6 4 7 26 29 -3 22 W L D L L
10 Everton 17 6 4 7 21 29 -8 22 L W W D W
11 Southampton 17 4 6 7 17 23 -6 18 W L D D L
12 Huddersfield Town 17 5 3 9 12 29 -17 18 L L L W L
13 Brighton & Hove Albion 17 4 5 8 14 23 -9 17 L D L L L
14 AFC Bournemouth 17 4 4 9 15 20 -5 16 D L D D L
15 Stoke City 17 4 4 9 19 36 -17 16 L L W L L
16 Newcastle United 17 4 3 10 16 26 -10 15 L D L L L
17 West Bromwich Albion 17 2 8 7 12 22 -10 14 D D D L D
18 Crystal Palace 17 3 5 9 12 28 -16 14 W D D D W
19 West Ham United 17 3 5 9 14 32 -18 14 D L L W D
20 Swansea City 17 3 3 11 9 22 -13 12 D L L W L

Week 18

The games midweek are always a surprise. Two big draws shuffle up the Premier League table going into this weekend with Arsenal drawing West Ham United away and Liverpool drawing with West Brom at home at Anfield. The weekend could likely see Burnley back up in fourth if the Spurs lose to Man City, Arsenal fail to pick up points again Newcastle and Liverpool, who struggled at home, fail to score away at Bournemouth. Stock up on Guinness this weekend should be good.

Home Home Goals Away Goals Visitor
Arsenal 2 0 Newcastle United
AFC Bournemouth 1 3 Liverpool
Brighton & Hove Albion 1 1 Burnley
Chelsea 3 1 Southampton
Everton 3 1 Swansea City
Leicester City 3 2 Crystal Palace
Manchester City 2 1 Tottenham Hotspur
Stoke City 0 1 West Ham United
Watford 2 1 Huddersfield Town
West Bromwich Albion 0 2 Manchester United

Week 17

There is no time.

Home Home Goals Result Away Goals Visitor
Burnley 2 1-0 1 Stoke City
Huddersfield Town 1 1-3 2 Chelsea
Swansea City 1 0-4 3 Manchester City
West Ham United 1 0-0 3 Arsenal
Crystal Palace 2 2-1 1 Watford
Manchester United 2 1-0 0 AFC Bournemouth
Newcastle United 3 0-1 1 Everton
Southampton 2 1-4 1 Leicester City
Liverpool 3 0-0 1 West Bromwich Albion
Tottenham Hotspur 2 2-0 1 Brighton & Hove Albion

Week 16

I added more weight to the last five game performance to see how that plays out in the next two weeks. Week 15 showed us that even when a team has 75% possesion, 16 shots on, and 33 shots total they can still come out two goals behind (I am looking at you Arsenal). There is also the little matter of what to do about Tottenham.

Home Home Goals Result Away Goals Visitor
Burnley 2 1-0 1 Watford
Crystal Palace 1 2-2 0 AFC Bournemouth
Huddersfield Town 1 2-0 1 Brighton & Hove Albion
Liverpool 3 1-1 1 Everton
Manchester United 1 1-2 2 Manchester City
Newcastle United 1 2-3 2 Leicester City
Southampton 1 1-1 2 Arsenal
Swansea City 2 1-0 1 West Bromwich Albion
Tottenham Hotspur 2 5-1 1 Stoke City
West Ham United 1 1-0 2 Chelsea

Week 15

With Week 14’s mid-week games packed in between two big weekends of fixtures it will be interesting to see how certain managers deal with substitutions, possibly opting to keep certain big players rested for later. This week brought a lot of changes, Everton seemed to find their footing against a decaying West Ham side, could this be Big Sam’s doing? Leicester show they are a side to be reckoned with after shutting down a flat Tottenham. There are no changes to the algorithm this week, mostly because I didn’t have time.

Home Home Goals Result Away Goals Visitor
Arsenal 1 1-3 2 Manchester United
AFC Bournemouth 0 1-1 1 Southampton
Brighton & Hove Albion 1 1-5 2 Liverpool
Chelsea 2 3-1 0 Newcastle United
Everton 2 2-0 1 Huddersfield Town
Leicester City 2 1-0 0 Burnley
Manchester City 3 2-1 1 West Ham United
Stoke City 2 2-1 1 Swansea City
Watford 1 1-1 3 Tottenham Hotspur
West Bromwich Albion 2 0-0 2 Crystal Palace

Week 14

Week 13 was an exciting foray into all the best bits of the Premier League. Arsenal getting a win they may have not deserved. Chelsea swiping a point from Liverpool (like a beloved children’s show fox) with what many are calling a *crot from Willian and Tottenham continue to falter as they fail to put away West Brom at home. This week I made mostly aesthetic changes moving the goals and results to the middle of the table which will be how they appear from now on. My prediction model remains unchanged this week.

*a wayward cross that somehow ends up on target, sometimes in the back of the net

Home Home Goals Result Away Goals Visitor
Arsenal 2 5-0 1 Huddersfield Town
AFC Bournemouth 1 1-2 1 Burnley
Brighton & Hove Albion 2 0-0 1 Crystal Palace
Leicester City 1 2-1 3 Tottenham Hotspur
Watford 1 2-4 2 Manchester United
West Bromwich Albion 1 2-2 0 Newcastle United
Chelsea 3 1-0 0 Swansea City
Everton 2 4-0 1 West Ham United
Manchester City 2 2-1 0 Southampton
Stoke City 1 0-3 2 Liverpool

Week 13

Last week was one of the most exciting week of games this season. Each game had you on the edge of your seat and anxiously sipping your Guinness. I narrowly lost my fantasy matchup but it was a good week for the prediction results. For a gooner the Arsenal result seemed to look like a return to some confidence in the Arsenal squad. I think that the addition of more weight on the last five game performances may be the only change I make going into Week 13.

Home Home Goals Result Away Goals Visitor
Burnley 1 1-3 3 Arsenal
Crystal Palace 2 2-1 1 Stoke City
Huddersfield Town 1 1-2 3 Manchester City
Liverpool 2 1-1 2 Chelsea
Manchester United 3 1-0 1 Brighton & Hove Albion
Newcastle United 1 0-3 0 Watford
Southampton 2 4-1 1 Everton
Swansea City 2 0-0 2 AFC Bournemouth
Tottenham Hotspur 3 1-1 1 West Bromwich Albion
West Ham United 2 1-1 1 Leicester City

Week 12

Week 11 was a prime tribute to the fragility of team positions mid and low in the table. With teams like Bournemouth, Brighton and Burnley all picking up low percentage chance wins. Though I did get the Brighton result right I believe I still have quite a bit of tweaking to do with market values but I left the overall calculations unchanged for this week.

Home Home Goals Result Away Goals Visitor
Arsenal 1 2-0 1 Tottenham Hotspur
AFC Bournemouth 1 4-0 0 Huddersfield Town
Brighton & Hove Albion 3 2-2 1 Stoke City
Burnley 2 2-0 1 Swansea City
Crystal Palace 1 2-2 2 Everton
Leicester City 1 0-2 3 Manchester City
Liverpool 3 3-0 1 Southampton
Manchester United 2 4-1 0 Newcastle United
Watford 2 2-0 1 West Ham United
West Bromwich Albion 1 0-4 2 Chelsea

Week 11

Last week shook out okay, though my only disappointment had to be the Watford Stoke result. This week I only use the last five games plus market value with offense weighted differently to see how that works out.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Chelsea Manchester United 2 1 1-0
Everton Watford 1 0 3-2
Huddersfield Town West Bromwich Albion 1 1 1-0
Manchester City Arsenal 2 1 3-1
Newcastle United AFC Bournemouth 3 1 0-1
Southampton Burnley 1 0 0-1
Stoke City Leicester City 2 1 2-2
Swansea City Brighton & Hove Albion 1 0 0-1
Tottenham Hotspur Crystal Palace 3 1 1-0
West Ham United Liverpool 1 2 1-4

Week 10

The last changes I made to the market cap weight seem to have made a difference. I think I may try and establish a model based on last five game performance for Week 12-14 to see if that does any better. Maybe it could predict things like Manchester United losing to Huddersfield (17/2 odds Huddersfield winning).

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Arsenal Swansea City 3 1 2-1
AFC Bournemouth Chelsea 1 3 0-1
Brighton & Hove Albion Southampton 2 1 1-1
Burnley Newcastle United 1 1 1-0
Crystal Palace West Ham United 2 2 2-2
Leicester City Everton 2 1 2-0
Liverpool Huddersfield Town 3 1 3-0
Manchester United Tottenham Hotspur 0 1 1-0
Watford Stoke City 2 1 0-1
West Bromwich Albion Manchester City 1 3 2-3

Week 9

Week 8 saw the introduction of the ‘market cap’ value to the predictions. This made the bigger teams (Chelsea, Arsenal, etc.) with the larger purses have wider margins, and fall harder. My predictions included some lofty goal scoring and high rated offenses which then fell to the supposedly lower rated teams. Chelsea falling to Crystal Palace, Arsenal falling to Watford, it was all a mess. I made some changes going into this week to lessen the impact of the market values and add a heavire weight to the results from this year.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Chelsea Watford 2 1 4-2
Everton Arsenal 1 2 2-5
Huddersfield Town Manchester United 0 2 2-1
Manchester City Burnley 3 0 3-0
Newcastle United Crystal Palace 2 1 1-0
Southampton West Bromwich Albion 1 0 1-0
Stoke City AFC Bournemouth 2 1 1-2
Swansea City Leicester City 2 1 1-2
Tottenham Hotspur Liverpool 2 1 4-1
West Ham United Brighton & Hove Albion 1 0 0-3

Week 8

I am getting behind on these but I was travelling again last weekend. This week is the debut of the first market cap feature addition. It seems to be a fairly cut and dry week with fixtures so may have to wait a couple weeks to see if accuracy changes.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Brighton & Hove Albion Everton 2 1 1-1
Burnley West Ham United 2 2 1-1
Crystal Palace Chelsea 1 3 2-1
Leicester City West Bromwich Albion 2 1 1-1
Liverpool Manchester United 1 2 0-0
Manchester City Stoke City 3 1 7-2
Southampton Newcastle United 1 2 2-2
Swansea City Huddersfield Town 2 1 2-0
Tottenham Hotspur AFC Bournemouth 3 1 1-0
Watford Arsenal 2 3 2-1

Week 7

Sorry for the hiatus… back to the results! It was very interesting to see a wild week like Week 5, which was tough to forecast for many on the web, where I went 4-6 on results. Follow that up with Week 6, where it was positive 8-2. The EPL is a fickle thing. This Week 7 is the last week slated to just be adjusting values within the calculations of performance variables. After this week I will only be making changes and additions of new data such as team market cap, foreign league performance etc.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Huddersfield Town Tottenham Hotspur 0 2 0-4
AFC Bournemouth Leicester City 1 1 0-0
Manchester United Crystal Palace 3 0 4-0
Stoke City Southampton 2 1 2-1
West Bromwich Albion Watford 0 2 2-2
West Ham United Swansea City 2 1 1-0
Chelsea Manchester City 1 2 0-1
Arsenal Brighton & Hove Albion 2 1 2-0
Everton Burnley 2 1 0-1
Newcastle United Liverpool 1 2 1-1

Week 6

Hiatus week #2 (left results unchanged)

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
West Ham United Tottenham Hotspur 1 3 2-3
Burnley Huddersfield Town 2 1 0-0
Everton AFC Bournemouth 3 1 2-1
Manchester City Crystal Palace 3 1 5-0
Southampton Manchester United 1 2 0-1
Stoke City Chelsea 1 2 0-4
Swansea City Watford 2 1 1-2
Leicester City Liverpool 2 3 2-3
Brighton & Hove Albion Newcastle United 1 1 1-0
Arsenal West Bromwich Albion 3 1 2-0

Week 5

Hiatus week #1 (left results unchanged)

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
AFC Bournemouth Brighton & Hove Albion 2 2 2-1
Crystal Palace Southampton 1 2 0-1
Huddersfield Town Leicester City 2 1 1-1
Liverpool Burnley 3 1 1-1
Newcastle United Stoke City 3 1 2-1
Watford Manchester City 1 3 0-6
West Bromwich Albion West Ham United 2 2 0-0
Tottenham Hotspur Swansea City 3 1 0-0
Chelsea Arsenal 3 1 0-0
Manchester United Everton 2 1 4-0

Week 4

It was a rough Week 3 for predictions. As I think about what has worked so far this season it seems that lessening the head to head history factor and allowing the current season performance to weigh heavier in the model.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Manchester City Liverpool 2 2 5-0
Arsenal AFC Bournemouth 3 1 3-0
Brighton & Hove Albion West Bromwich Albion 2 1 3-1
Everton Tottenham Hotspur 2 2 0-3
Leicester City Chelsea 1 3 1-2
Southampton Watford 1 1 0-2
Stoke City Manchester United 1 2 2-2
Burnley Crystal Palace 2 1 1-0
Swansea City Newcastle United 1 2 0-1
West Ham United Huddersfield Town 0 1 2-0

Week 3

Minor improvements to the way goals are calculated and compared mde the goal predictions closer, this week will hopefully improve on that. Another big team gives us an upset for the second week in a row with Arsenal losing 0-1 to Stoke. This week the changes are just incorporating last week’s results, leaving the goal projections raw, and next week I plan on adding a revised head-to-head factor.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
AFC Bournemouth Manchester City 2 2 1-2
Chelsea Everton 3 1 2-0
Crystal Palace Swansea City 2 1 0-2
Huddersfield Town Southampton 0 1 0-0
Newcastle United West Ham United 1 2 3-0
Tottenham Hotspur Burnley 3 1 1-1
Watford Brighton & Hove Albion 1 0 0-0
Manchester United Leicester City 2 1 2-0
West Bromwich Albion Stoke City 1 1 1-1
Liverpool Arsenal 2 1 4-0

Week 2

What an exciting Week 1. There were a couple of upsets, with Chelsea falling to Burnley 2-3, and Liverpool drawing with Watford. The newly promoted teams madea good showing with Crystal Palace falling to Huddersfield 0-3. My adjustments are not extensive this week, just including the first week’s results, and lessening the promoted team handicap.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Swansea City Manchester United 0 2 0-4
AFC Bournemouth Watford 1 2 0-2
Burnley West Bromwich Albion 2 1 0-1
Leicester City Brighton & Hove Albion 2 0 2-0
Liverpool Crystal Palace 3 2 1-0
West Ham United Southampton 1 1 2-3
Stoke City Arsenal 1 2 1-0
Huddersfield Town Newcastle United 1 0 1-0
Tottenham Hotspur Chelsea 2 1 1-2
Manchester City Everton 2 1 1-1

Week 1

In this first week I left the goal predictions as-is with no adjustments for draws or by any sort of rank strength. I want this first week to start off as simple as possible and go from there.

Home Visitor Home Goals Away Goals Result
Arsenal Leicester City 3 1 4-3
Watford Liverpool 1 2 3-3
Chelsea Burnley 3 1 2-3
Crystal Palace Huddersfield Town 2 0 0-3
Everton Stoke City 3 1 1-0
Southampton Swansea City 1 1 0-0
West Bromwich Albion AFC Bournemouth 2 2 1-0
Brighton & Hove Albion Manchester City 0 2 0-2
Newcastle United Tottenham Hotspur 0 1 0-2
Manchester United West Ham United 2 2 4-0