Written on

Premier League 2018-2019

Found in [R , soccer , EPL] by @awhstin on

This is a page dedicated to weekly predictions for English Premier League. I am a fan of the Premier League and I am a long time Gooner though try as I might no sort of predictions I do can make them better. A lot of the data for this comes from the awesome engsoccerdata package available on github. My predictions are under constantly construction but they are based on Poisson distributions, and you can read a little bit about those here. Other pieces include Transfer Market data of team and player values from transfermarkt.co.uk The first year was the 2017-18 season which you can view via the link below.

Though this will appear on my blog feed it can be found in later weeks on the navigation bar via the button.


Premier League Standings

Below are the standings of the Premier League. ABB is the team abbreviation used for reference. ATT - DEF are calculated stats for each team. P is points during this Premier League season.
Team abb ATT DEF GP W D L GD P
Manchester City MCI 2.1 1.8 2 2 0 0 7 6
Liverpool LIV 2.0 1.6 2 2 0 0 6 6
Chelsea CHE 2.4 1.3 2 2 0 0 4 6
Watford WAT 0.5 1.4 2 2 0 0 4 6
Tottenham Hotspur TOT 2.1 1.3 2 2 0 0 3 6
Bournemouth BOU 0.8 1.3 2 2 0 0 3 6
Everton EVE 1.3 1.1 2 1 1 0 1 4
Leicester City LEI 0.9 1.5 2 1 0 1 1 3
Manchester United MUN 1.4 1.3 2 1 0 1 0 3
Crystal Palace CRY 0.5 1.3 2 1 0 1 0 3
Brighton & Hove Albion BHA 0.6 0.1 2 1 0 1 -1 3
Newcastle United NEW 0.6 0.1 2 0 1 1 -1 1
Southampton SOU 0.3 0.9 2 0 1 1 -1 1
Wolverhampton WLV 1.8 0.9 2 0 1 1 -2 1
Burnley BUR 0.5 1.2 2 0 1 1 -2 1
Cardiff City CC 0.4 0.8 2 0 1 1 -2 1
Arsenal ARS 1.5 1.5 2 0 0 2 -3 0
Fulham FUL 0.8 0.5 2 0 0 2 -4 0
West Ham United WHU 0.5 1.2 2 0 0 2 -5 0
Huddersfield Town HUD -0.1 1.5 2 0 0 2 -8 0

This page is going to look a little different than the predictions last year. If a team is predicted to win they will be highlighted in green and if no winner is highlighted that means either no team tips over the threshold which means it is predicted to end in a draw. The actual results will be updated after the final day for that game week.

Week 3

Home result Away
LIV 5.0 NA -0.8 BHA
FUL -0.5 NA -0.2 BUR
ARS 2.4 NA -0.5 WHU
MUN 2.8 NA 3.8 TOT
NEW -0.3 NA 5.0 CHE
SOU -0.9 NA 0.7 LEI
WAT -0.6 NA -0.5 CRY
WLV 0.0 NA 4.8 MCI
HUD -1.5 NA -3.0 CC
BOU -0.2 NA 0.4 EVE

I am okay being wrong when it comes to teams beating MUN, and I am elated that Brighton handed them their first loss of the season. Quickly my elation faded as I watched ARS handed their second loss in a row. This week I made a small change to the draw threshold because last week my predictions were correct but the threshold was too high. This means that both the BOU vs EVE and MUN vs. TOT games have a predicted winner now.


Week 2

6/10
Home result Away
MCI 2.9 6-1 -1.9 HUD
CC -0.2 0-0 -0.3 NEW
CHE 3.7 3-2 2.8 ARS
EVE 1.1 2-1 -0.6 SOU
LEI 0.6 2-0 -0.1 WLV
WHU -0.6 1-2 -0.5 BOU
CRY -0.3 0-2 3.9 LIV
BUR -1.0 1-3 -0.4 WAT
BHA -0.6 3-2 3.7 MUN
TOT 4.1 3-1 -0.5 FUL

It is great to have club football back. This first week saw some great football and a relatively high scoring first week. Liverpool started where they left off trouncing West Ham and the league winners looked in great form against my gunners who look to another tough match up with Chelsea in week 2. There are a couple matchups that according to my predictions look to be pretty even, I think that the WHU vs. BOU fixture might be interesting. Also I look at CRY giving that LIV back line a little trouble.


Week 1

9/10
Home result Away
LIV 3.7 4-0 -0.3 WHU
FUL -0.7 0-2 0.3 CRY
ARS 2.5 0-2 4.4 MCI
MUN 2.3 2-1 0.6 LEI
NEW -0.3 1-2 4.7 TOT
SOU -0.5 0-0 -0.4 BUR
WAT 0.6 2-0 -1.0 BHA
WLV 0.2 2-2 0.9 EVE
HUD -1.6 0-3 2.2 CHE
BOU 0.0 2-0 -1.6 CC

Between revamping this page, the prediction model and getting our fantasy league up and running for this year I have to say that the English Premier League has been nearly a part time job and it hasn’t even started yet. I wouldn’t have it any other way.