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Premier League 2018-2019

Found in [R , soccer , EPL] by @awhstin on

This is a page dedicated to weekly predictions for English Premier League. I am a fan of the Premier League and I am a long time Gooner though try as I might no sort of predictions I do can make them better. A lot of the data for this comes from the awesome engsoccerdata package available on github. My predictions are under constantly construction but they are based on Poisson distributions, and you can read a little bit about those here. Other pieces include Transfer Market data of team and player values from transfermarkt.co.uk The first year was the 2017-18 season which you can view via the link below.

Though this will appear on my blog feed it can be found in later weeks on the navigation bar via the button.


Premier League Standings

Below are the standings of the Premier League. ABB is the team reviation used for reference. ATT - DEF are calculated stats for each team. P is points during this Premier League season.
Team ATT DEF GP W D L GD P
Liverpool LIV 2.0 1.6 16 13 3 0 28 42
Manchester City MCI 2.1 1.8 16 13 2 1 36 41
Tottenham Hotspur TOT 2.1 1.3 16 12 0 4 14 36
Chelsea CHE 2.4 1.3 16 10 4 2 20 34
Arsenal ARS 1.5 1.5 16 10 4 2 15 34
Manchester United MUN 1.4 1.3 16 7 5 4 2 26
Everton EVE 1.3 1.1 16 6 6 4 4 24
Bournemouth BOU 0.8 1.3 16 7 2 7 -1 23
Leicester City LEI 0.9 1.5 16 6 4 6 1 22
Wolverhampton WLV 1.8 0.9 16 6 4 6 -2 22
West Ham United WHU 0.5 1.2 16 6 3 7 -2 21
Watford WAT 0.5 1.4 16 6 3 7 -3 21
Brighton & Hove Albion BHA 0.6 0.1 16 6 3 7 -3 21
Cardiff City CC 0.4 0.8 16 4 2 10 -15 14
Newcastle United NEW 0.6 0.1 16 3 4 9 -9 13
Crystal Palace CRY 0.5 1.3 16 3 3 10 -10 12
Burnley BUR 0.5 1.2 16 3 3 10 -17 12
Huddersfield Town HUD -0.1 1.5 16 2 4 10 -17 10
Southampton SOU 0.3 0.9 16 1 6 9 -17 9
Fulham FUL 0.8 0.5 16 2 3 11 -24 9

SEASON P GD POS
2017 Manchester City 46 36 1
2011 Manchester City 44 38 1
2016 Chelsea 43 24 1
2018 Liverpool 42 28 1
2014 Chelsea 42 25 1
2012 Manchester United 42 19 1
2015 Leicester City 38 13 1
2010 Manchester United 37 22 1
2013 Manchester City 35 31 3


The Title Race

It is always nice to provide a little historical context so in this new section I take a look at the last 10 years of Premier League champions. This data shows the goal difference (GD), points (P), and position (POS) of each champion at the current season’s number of games played. The current season leader(s) are highlighted in green.


This page is going to look a little different than the predictions last year. If a team is predicted to win they will be highlighted in green and if no winner is highlighted that means either no team tips over the threshold which means it is predicted to end in a draw. The actual results will be updated after the final day for that game week.

Week 17

Home result Away
LIV 4.2 NA 2.6 MUN
MCI 4.7 NA 0.6 EVE
FUL -0.9 NA 0.3 WHU
SOU -0.8 NA 3.0 ARS
WAT -0.3 NA -1.6 CC
WLV -0.1 NA 0.0 BOU
HUD -0.6 NA -2.1 NEW
CRY -0.6 NA 0.3 LEI
BHA -0.7 NA 4.9 CHE
TOT 3.7 NA -0.6 BUR

Quick week #2


Week 16

6/10
Home result Away
CC -1.0 1-0 -0.4 SOU
ARS 1.0 1-0 -1.9 HUD
MUN 3.2 4-1 -0.4 FUL
NEW -0.2 1-2 1.3 WLV
BOU -0.3 0-4 3.7 LIV
CHE 3.7 2-0 4.8 MCI
EVE 0.5 2-2 -0.5 WAT
LEI 0.5 0-2 3.3 TOT
WHU -0.4 3-2 -0.6 CRY
BUR 0.4 1-0 1.5 BHA

Quick week.


Week 15

6/10
Home result Away
FUL -1.0 1-1 0.9 LEI
WAT -0.7 1-2 4.4 MCI
WLV 0.3 2-1 4.1 CHE
BOU -0.5 2-1 -2.0 HUD
WHU -0.1 3-1 -1.6 CC
BUR -0.8 1-3 4.1 LIV
BHA -0.9 3-1 0.8 CRY
MUN 2.4 2-2 2.9 ARS
EVE 1.9 1-1 -0.4 NEW
TOT 3.9 3-1 -0.4 SOU

Quick week.


Week 14

5/10
Home result Away
LIV 4.0 1-0 0.7 EVE
MCI 4.3 3-1 -0.4 BOU
CC -1.1 2-1 0.4 WLV
ARS 2.9 4-2 3.4 TOT
NEW -0.7 0-3 0.8 WHU
SOU -0.4 2-2 3.0 MUN
HUD -0.6 1-2 0.3 BHA
CHE 4.4 2-0 -0.5 FUL
LEI 0.1 2-0 -0.8 WAT
CRY -0.2 2-0 -0.8 BUR

The last two weeks have seen a big slide in my results. I have revamped a portion of the model to change the weights of results to more recent games.


Week 13

4/10
Home result Away
FUL -0.3 3-2 -0.1 SOU
MUN 2.6 0-0 -0.1 CRY
WAT -0.5 0-3 3.7 LIV
WLV -1.5 0-2 -1.5 HUD
BOU -0.4 1-2 2.4 ARS
EVE 0.9 1-0 -1.3 CC
WHU -0.4 0-4 4.3 MCI
BUR 0.4 1-2 -0.3 NEW
BHA -1.1 1-1 1.4 LEI
TOT 3.7 3-1 4.0 CHE

With MCI continuing their winning ways the title race looks interesting. Now over half the teams in the title race who won their season had reached 1st place at this point. I believe a few of those seasons were not as close at the top as this season is but interesting nonetheless. SOU come into this week after having a frustrating game with WAT they felt they should have won, I have a feeling this week they may come out with something to prove this week.


Week 12

3/10
Home result Away
LIV 4.5 2-0 -0.7 FUL
MCI 4.8 3-1 2.5 MUN
CC -0.3 2-1 -0.6 BHA
ARS 2.9 1-1 0.0 WLV
NEW -0.7 2-1 0.9 BOU
SOU -0.8 1-1 -0.2 WAT
HUD -2.0 1-1 -2.0 WHU
CHE 3.9 0-0 0.9 EVE
LEI 0.4 0-0 -1.0 BUR
CRY -0.1 0-1 3.5 TOT

The match to watch this week has to be MCI vs. MUN. Last week saw NEW slow their losing streak and ARS vs. LIV ended in an exciting draw. This week I expect that BHA will win contrary to what my model predicts, it always makes for a spicy week when I disagree with the numbers.


Week 11

7/10
Home result Away
MCI 4.9 6-1 -0.8 SOU
CC -1.6 0-1 0.5 LEI
ARS 2.7 1-1 3.8 LIV
NEW -0.7 1-0 0.6 WAT
WLV 0.4 2-3 3.8 TOT
HUD -1.2 1-0 -2.3 FUL
BOU 0.0 1-2 2.3 MUN
CHE 3.8 3-1 -0.1 CRY
EVE 1.8 3-1 -0.8 BHA
WHU -0.2 4-2 -1.0 BUR

Last week was an interesting weekend. CP get goals and BHA extend the WLV losing streak courtesy of another Glen Murray goal. This week we have ARS vs LIV and the momentum is certainly with LIV coming in. Another potential for excitement coud be WHU vs BUR as both team are looking to stop the bleeding with some much needed points.


Week 10

7/10
Home result Away
LIV 4.1 4-1 -1.4 CC
FUL -0.9 0-3 0.3 BOU
MUN 2.7 2-1 1.0 EVE
SOU 0.5 0-0 -0.1 NEW
WAT -1.4 3-0 -2.0 HUD
LEI 0.1 1-1 -0.6 WHU
CRY -0.5 2-2 2.6 ARS
BUR -0.6 0-4 3.9 CHE
BHA -0.6 1-0 1.3 WLV
TOT 3.4 0-1 4.8 MCI

Both LIV and TOT squeeze out victories in Week 9 but in Week 10 TOT will be tested as they host a MCI that scored 5 last week. A new feature I added shows that at this point this year, after 9 games, MCI are still in a league of their own the only difference is that there are 4 teams within 5 points of them this year.


Week 9

6/10
Home result Away
MCI 4.7 5-0 -0.9 BUR
CC -0.8 4-2 -0.5 FUL
ARS 2.4 3-1 0.2 LEI
NEW 0.6 0-1 0.3 BHA
WLV 0.0 0-2 -0.3 WAT
HUD -1.8 0-1 2.3 LIV
BOU 0.1 0-0 -0.9 SOU
CHE 4.1 2-2 2.8 MUN
EVE 0.7 2-0 -0.3 CRY
WHU -0.1 0-1 3.3 TOT

No time.


Week 8

8/10
Home result Away
LIV 3.8 0-0 4.6 MCI
FUL -0.8 1-5 3.2 ARS
MUN 3.8 3-2 -0.2 NEW
SOU -0.5 0-3 4.2 CHE
WAT -0.8 0-4 -0.5 BOU
LEI 0.4 1-2 0.4 EVE
CRY -0.1 0-1 0.1 WLV
BUR -2.4 1-1 -1.6 HUD
BHA -1.1 1-0 0.8 WHU
TOT 3.7 1-0 -1.2 CC

We watched MU slide further into darkness, CHE vs. LIV battle it out twice, and ARS extend their win streak to 7. This week we will see two of the leagues proposed front-runner’s for the title LIV vs. MCI which should be a great game. The other match seeming a little special to me is CRY vs. WLV.


Week 7

6/10
Home result Away
MCI 5.7 2-0 -1.0 BHA
CC -1.2 1-2 -0.5 BUR
ARS 2.5 2-0 -0.7 WAT
NEW -0.7 0-2 1.5 LEI
WLV 0.5 2-0 -0.4 SOU
HUD -1.6 0-2 1.9 TOT
BOU -0.3 2-1 -0.6 CRY
CHE 3.8 1-1 4.1 LIV
EVE 1.3 3-0 -0.6 FUL
WHU -0.1 3-1 2.4 MUN

Coming off my worst week of predictions so far this year and now at an average of just over 60% correct I think this will be the last week before I make a few changes to the model. In terms of matchups I think ARS vs WAT could be interesting and of course the CHE vs LIV will be the game to watch. We get a preview of that game in the form of a League Cup match midweek but I imagine that game will be a different affair then what we can expect on Saturday.


Week 6

4/10
Home result Away
LIV 4.3 3-0 -0.6 SOU
FUL -0.9 1-1 0.0 WAT
CC -1.5 0-5 4.8 MCI
ARS 2.7 2-0 0.5 EVE
MUN 2.8 1-1 0.4 WLV
LEI -1.3 3-1 -2.0 HUD
WHU -0.1 0-0 3.6 CHE
CRY 0.8 0-0 -0.5 NEW
BUR -1.0 4-0 -0.1 BOU
BHA -0.6 1-2 4.6 TOT

Last week was a solid showing for the predictions with 8/10 correct. It was also a great showing for my fantasy league where I moved into 7th after my second win of the season. Back to the fixtures and we see ARS vs. EVE and with Richarlison back you would think EVE would be looking to get at that shakey ARS back line. I also am intrigued to see if WAT with their physical play are vulnerable to the fluid movement FUL are capable of playing.


Week 5

7/10
Home result Away
MCI 5.2 3-0 -0.8 FUL
NEW -0.6 1-2 3.8 ARS
SOU 0.5 2-2 -0.5 BHA
WAT -0.3 1-2 2.4 MUN
WLV 0.3 1-0 -0.5 BUR
HUD -1.8 0-1 -2.0 CRY
BOU -0.5 4-2 0.0 LEI
CHE 4.0 4-1 -1.2 CC
EVE 0.5 1-3 -0.3 WHU
TOT 3.5 1-2 4.1 LIV

Last week saw TOT fall to an active WAT midfield that looked dangerous, needless to say I look forward to the TOT vs. LIV matchup to see if they can bounce back and look more dangerous. WAT also have another tough matchup in MUN but they look more than up for that challenge.


Week 4

7/10
Home result Away
MCI 5.7 2-1 -0.6 NEW
CC -1.5 2-3 2.9 ARS
WAT -0.3 2-1 3.3 TOT
CHE 3.5 2-0 -0.1 BOU
EVE -0.9 1-1 -1.7 HUD
LEI 0.3 1-2 3.7 LIV
WHU -0.1 0-1 -0.1 WLV
CRY 0.3 0-2 -0.7 SOU
BUR -0.5 0-2 2.7 MUN
BHA -0.3 2-2 0.4 FUL

MCI dropping points was just one of the dramatic storylines from this week. This week I think the LEI vs. LIV game will be interesting as well as what the aforementioned MCI do to answer for their scoreline in week 3. That is not meant as a slight to WLV who looked ready to take it to the champions and not sit back. More excitement to come this week.


Week 3

5/10
Home result Away
LIV 5.0 1-0 -0.8 BHA
FUL -0.5 4-2 -0.2 BUR
ARS 2.4 3-1 -0.5 WHU
MUN 2.8 0-3 3.8 TOT
NEW -0.3 1-2 5.0 CHE
SOU -0.9 1-2 0.7 LEI
WAT -0.6 2-1 -0.5 CRY
WLV 0.0 1-1 4.8 MCI
HUD -1.5 0-0 -3.0 CC
BOU -0.2 2-2 0.4 EVE

I am okay being wrong when it comes to teams beating MUN, and I am elated that Brighton handed them their first loss of the season. Quickly my elation faded as I watched ARS handed their second loss in a row. This week I made a small change to the draw threshold because last week my predictions were correct but the threshold was too high. This means that both the BOU vs EVE and MUN vs. TOT games have a predicted winner now.


Week 2

6/10
Home result Away
MCI 2.9 6-1 -1.9 HUD
CC -0.2 0-0 -0.3 NEW
CHE 3.7 3-2 2.8 ARS
EVE 1.1 2-1 -0.6 SOU
LEI 0.6 2-0 -0.1 WLV
WHU -0.6 1-2 -0.5 BOU
CRY -0.3 0-2 3.9 LIV
BUR -1.0 1-3 -0.4 WAT
BHA -0.6 3-2 3.7 MUN
TOT 4.1 3-1 -0.5 FUL

It is great to have club football back. This first week saw some great football and a relatively high scoring first week. Liverpool started where they left off trouncing West Ham and the league winners looked in great form against my gunners who look to another tough match up with Chelsea in week 2. There are a couple matchups that according to my predictions look to be pretty even, I think that the WHU vs. BOU fixture might be interesting. Also I look at CRY giving that LIV back line a little trouble.


Week 1

9/10
Home result Away
LIV 3.7 4-0 -0.3 WHU
FUL -0.7 0-2 0.3 CRY
ARS 2.5 0-2 4.4 MCI
MUN 2.3 2-1 0.6 LEI
NEW -0.3 1-2 4.7 TOT
SOU -0.5 0-0 -0.4 BUR
WAT 0.6 2-0 -1.0 BHA
WLV 0.2 2-2 0.9 EVE
HUD -1.6 0-3 2.2 CHE
BOU 0.0 2-0 -1.6 CC

Between revamping this page, the prediction model and getting our fantasy league up and running for this year I have to say that the English Premier League has been nearly a part time job and it hasn’t even started yet. I wouldn’t have it any other way.