This is a page dedicated to weekly predictions for English Premier League. I am a fan of the Premier League and I am a long time Gooner though try as I might no sort of predictions I do can make them better. A lot of the data for this comes from the awesome
engsoccerdata package available on github. My predictions are under constantly construction but they are based on Poisson distributions, and you can read a little bit about those here. Other pieces include Transfer Market data of team and player values from transfermarkt.co.uk The first year was the 2017-18 season which you can view via the link below.
Though this will appear on my blog feed it can be found in later weeks on the navigation bar via the button.
Premier League Standings
|West Ham United||WHU||0.5||1.2||26||9||6||11||-7||33|
|Brighton & Hove Albion||BHA||0.6||0.1||26||7||6||13||-11||27|
The Title Race
It is always nice to provide a little historical context so in this new section I take a look at the last 10 years of Premier League champions. This data shows the goal difference (GD), points (P), and position (POS) of each champion at the current season’s number of games played. The current season leader(s) are highlighted in green.
This page is going to look a little different than the predictions last year. If a team is predicted to win they will be highlighted in green and if no winner is highlighted that means either no team tips over the threshold which means it is predicted to end in a draw. The actual results will be updated after the final day for that game week.
MCIcan put some major pressure on
LIVin the title race since they host a capable
MCIdropping points should have meant that
LIVcould move further up on the top, but they failed to finish off mid-table
LEIdespite being at . This week we see a major matchup with for
ARSwhere the league title hopefuls need to come out swinging. The league looks like a two part battle at the top. Three teams going for the title (two really) and three teams battling for that final Champions league spot.
TOTsqueeze out a win. This week has
WHUwhere they hope to continue their form. One result I might disagree with is
SOUbecause of their current form but it should be a good game.
Nothing works. It is all broken.
THE TITLE RACE IS ON.
———–Return from break———–
I’ve made it back from a long break for the holidays and we are back with some real big fixtures and what looks to be an exciting second half of the Premier League.
Quick week #2
The last two weeks have seen a big slide in my results. I have revamped a portion of the model to change the weights of results to more recent games.
MCI continuing their winning ways the title race looks interesting. Now over half the teams in the title race who won their season had reached 1st place at this point. I believe a few of those seasons were not as close at the top as this season is but interesting nonetheless.
SOU come into this week after having a frustrating game with
WAT they felt they should have won, I have a feeling this week they may come out with something to prove this week.
The match to watch this week has to be
MCI vs. MUN. Last week saw
NEW slow their losing streak and
ARS vs. LIV ended in an exciting draw. This week I expect that
BHA will win contrary to what my model predicts, it always makes for a spicy week when I disagree with the numbers.
Last week was an interesting weekend.
CP get goals and
BHA extend the
WLV losing streak courtesy of another Glen Murray goal. This week we have
ARS vs LIV and the momentum is certainly with
LIV coming in. Another potential for excitement coud be
WHU vs BUR as both team are looking to stop the bleeding with some much needed points.
TOT squeeze out victories in Week 9 but in Week 10
TOT will be tested as they host a
MCI that scored 5 last week. A new feature I added shows that at this point this year, after 9 games,
MCI are still in a league of their own the only difference is that there are 4 teams within 5 points of them this year.
MU slide further into darkness,
CHE vs. LIV battle it out twice, and
ARS extend their win streak to 7. This week we will see two of the leagues proposed front-runner’s for the title
LIV vs. MCI which should be a great game. The other match seeming a little special to me is
CRY vs. WLV.
Coming off my worst week of predictions so far this year and now at an average of just over 60% correct I think this will be the last week before I make a few changes to the model. In terms of matchups I think
ARS vs WAT could be interesting and of course the
CHE vs LIV will be the game to watch. We get a preview of that game in the form of a League Cup match midweek but I imagine that game will be a different affair then what we can expect on Saturday.
Last week was a solid showing for the predictions with 8/10 correct. It was also a great showing for my fantasy league where I moved into 7th after my second win of the season. Back to the fixtures and we see
ARS vs. EVE and with Richarlison back you would think
EVE would be looking to get at that shakey
ARS back line. I also am intrigued to see if
WAT with their physical play are vulnerable to the fluid movement
FUL are capable of playing.
Last week saw
TOT fall to an active
WAT midfield that looked dangerous, needless to say I look forward to the
TOT vs. LIV matchup to see if they can bounce back and look more dangerous.
WAT also have another tough matchup in
MUN but they look more than up for that challenge.
MCI dropping points was just one of the dramatic storylines from this week. This week I think the
LEI vs. LIV game will be interesting as well as what the aforementioned
MCI do to answer for their scoreline in week 3. That is not meant as a slight to
WLV who looked ready to take it to the champions and not sit back. More excitement to come this week.
I am okay being wrong when it comes to teams beating
MUN, and I am elated that Brighton handed them their first loss of the season. Quickly my elation faded as I watched
ARS handed their second loss in a row. This week I made a small change to the draw threshold because last week my predictions were correct but the threshold was too high. This means that both the
BOU vs EVE and
MUN vs. TOT games have a predicted winner now.
It is great to have club football back. This first week saw some great football and a relatively high scoring first week. Liverpool started where they left off trouncing West Ham and the league winners looked in great form against my gunners who look to another tough match up with Chelsea in week 2. There are a couple matchups that according to my predictions look to be pretty even, I think that the
WHU vs. BOU fixture might be interesting. Also I look at
CRY giving that
LIV back line a little trouble.
Between revamping this page, the prediction model and getting our fantasy league up and running for this year I have to say that the English Premier League has been nearly a part time job and it hasn’t even started yet. I wouldn’t have it any other way.